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Understanding change

8. What information can you collect routinely to provide both up-to-date and comprehensive profiles of a rapidly changing population and workforce mapping to enable you and your partners to take appropriate and sensitive action?

This question emphasises the importance of knowing who lives in the area you serve and understanding their needs. In many areas the demographic structure of the population is changing rapidly and traditional sources of information are no longer reliable. You need to work with partners to develop a clear picture of the population you serve so that you can understand how their needs are changing, ensure that resources are deployed equitably and avoid potential tensions caused by perceptions of unfairness. To do this successfully you need to develop clear strategies for collecting and managing information.

Self assessment questions

  • Do you work with partners, particularly the Local Authority, to agree which sources to use to collect information on the changing size and structure of your local population in terms of age, gender, ethnic origin and other significant characteristics? 
  • Do you and your partners agree protocols and formats for collecting and analysing demographic data e.g. area boundaries, frequency, formats?
  • Do you supplement your collection of quantitative data with qualitative research e.g. focus groups and key informant interviews?
  • Do you use demographic data to develop patient profiles for use in planning, targeting interventions towards those in greatest need and measuring effectiveness in achieving health inequalities targets? 

Some examples of good practice

In 2007 iCoCo produced the COHDMAP (Cohesion mapping of community dynamics) report, commissioned by the Department of Health to examine ways of improving the information base for understanding demographic change in local communities. The report found that the official methods of estimating population change, particularly in areas where there are high rates of 'churn', were no longer reliable. This is because they take insufficient account of the volatile nature of population change and rely too heavily on the 2001 census (the accuracy of which has been challenged) and on projections forward using indicative data sources that are equally inaccurate.

It examined the potential of a wide range of other sources including GP registrations, the annual schools census (PLASC), the International Passenger Survey, worker registrations for A8 Eastern European migrant workers and many more.  The report was then followed by a further report 'Measuring the health of urban populations: a small area study in Coventry and Leicester' (2008), which made recommendations about how improvements could be made to the way some of the data sources are managed and suggested ways that local partnerships could co-operate in collecting and managing information. One of the report's recommendations was that Local Authorities and PCTs should reach clear agreements on the best ways of collating and analysing data at a local level and establish a common postcode directory and protocols for data sharing. The report proposed a model that builds principally upon change in GP list size, with small corrections for the excess of births over deaths and with margins of error determined by the extent of population turbulence, reflected in the changing school population and recent housing allocations to asylum seekers. The report also proposed that local partnerships should supplement their quantitative analysis with qualitative methods including focus groups, key informant interviews and local health forums such as the Hillfields Health Action Group in Coventry.

Recognising substantial anecdotal changes in Derby's demographic profile, particularly since 2004 and the expansion of the European Union, Derby Community Safety Partnership brought together a wide range of primary and secondary data sets in order to answer the following research questions:

  1. What is the city's demographic composition in terms of age, sex, ethnicity and nationality?
  2. How is this picture changing, particularly in respect of migration and newly emerging communities?

The study aimed to provide a 'best estimate' of the city's demographic profile to inform neighbourhood profiling, Derby's Community Cohesion Strategy and wider partnership planning and service delivery. The report also made recommendations in relation to future monitoring of population change and migration.

The project relied upon a headline city-wide population figure, which was generated using the ONS mid-year estimates, the GP patient register and the commercial dataset PeopleUK. A population frame was then constructed based on the variables of age, gender, ethnicity, nationality and ward and compared to the 2001 Census picture.

A wide range of multi-agency data sets were used to approximate Derby's shifting population profile and patterns in new migration patterns. These included:

  • GP Patient Register (Derwent Shared Services)
  • School Census (Derby City Council)
  • Derby Places Survey 2008 (Community Safety Partnership)
  • School Leaver Destinations (Connexions)
  • National Insurance registrations (Job Centre Plus)
  • Higher Education statistics (HESA)
  • Electoral Register (Derby City Council)
  • Census 2001 (ONS)
  • People UK (CACI)
  • Workers Registration Scheme ('A8' - Eastern European migrants)
  • Partnership service statistics
  • Qualitative and anecdotal evidence

The project has allowed Derby's Community Safety Partnership to explore the extent to which the local population is growing and diversifying at both city and neighbourhood levels and has offered a further insight into the nature and make up of this population change.

Contact: dan.howitt@derby.gov.uk

Whilst it is important to understand the changing size of the population, it is just as important to monitor its changing nature: how the population is changing in terms of its age and socio-economic structure or in terms of ethnic diversity. Where new communities are emerging in an area there may be significant cultural change that public agencies need to understand. This is important in terms of delivering services in ways that are appropriate for different communities and in order to identify possible points of tension. Britain has seen a significant growth in its Muslim community in recent years but it would be a mistake to see that as the growth of a single community. In April 2008, iCoCo produced a guide to the complex relationships within the Muslim community: 'Understanding and Appreciating Muslim Diversity: Towards better Engagement and Participation'. Guides such as this, based on sound research principles are essential tools in the management of public services in a multi-cultural society.