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Good practice

Guide to other work

In addition to the COHDMAP work, several other research projects are being undertaken to develop more reliable ways of estimating population change.  Some of them are mentioned elsewhere in the toolkit (e.g. work by the Audit Commission, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, ONS and the URBACT study). This section provides a summary and some signposts to some significant pieces of work by local authorities.

Slough Borough Council

There's no accounting for some people - measuring migration for grant distribution

Slough Borough Council believes that the ONS mid-year estimate seriously underestimates the district's population producing a "near catastrophic impact on the council's funding position".  Between 1991 and 2001 Slough experienced the ninth fastest population increase of any Local authority in the country (a rise of 15,200 people).  However, based on ONS's latest mid-year estimates and projections, this rapid increase has suddenly and incomprehensively reversed. According to the ONS estimates, Slough is now experiencing a mass exodus on a previously unheard of scale.

Based on constant, increasing demand for the council's services, its own data sources and independently commissioned research, Slough council does not accept the ONS estimates and has produced a report highlighting significant flaws in the methodology. The report sets out evidence of population increase drawn from focus groups, data on dwelling numbers and household density, pupil numbers, child benefit data, GP registrations, birth rates, National Insurance numbers and a range of other supporting anecdotal evidence (even a substantial increase in sewage flowing out of town).  Slough's approach has attracted much interest from other local Authorities that have similar concerns about the official estimates and from the national media (See The Sunday Times, 20th May 2007 "Come to Slough, everyone else has..." by John-Paul Flintoff.)

Newham Borough Council

Population and the ONS mid-year estimates

A report by Michelle Von Ahn of Newham's corporate research unit highlights similar concerns to those of Slough. Newham estimate that their population has been underestimated by at least 5,000 people. According to ONS estimates Newham has suffered the largest population loss in the country for the last two years but local data points to a growing population.  The report highlights a number of flaws in the use of some of the ONS data.  For example, ONS relies heavily on the International passenger Survey for international migration but Von Ahn notes that people arriving from Asian countries are often undercounted as many flights arrive at night when data is not recorded as it is out of office hours.

The report draws on data from GP registrations, applications for National insurance numbers, PLASC pupil numbers, Council tax data and electoral registration data which all suggest growth rather than decline in the population. Von Ahn believes that international migration data could be improved by 1) the use of PLASC data which could be used to identify country of origin of pupils in schools and 2) the use of Flag 4 GP registration data (if it were cleaned of those who have returned to their home countries without de-registering).

Southwark Borough Council

pdfSouthwark neighbourhood analytical project (20.46KB) (SNAP)

"A partnership between Southwark Council, Southwark PCT and Mayhew Associates was established in 2006 to make better use of locally available administrative data to:

  • Improve local knowledge
  • Aid decision making, planning and policy analysis; and
  • Support the provision of analysis and information required by central government.
  • A unique feature of Mayhew Associates' approach is the matching and geo-referencing of data at the household level. Systematic analyses are adopted to pinpoint key features of local areas in terms of services provided, crime, health, educational or other outcomes.

The first stage of the project was to acquire various datasets including: PLASC i.e. Pupil level Annual School Census, GP register, Council Tax, Local Property Gazetteer, Housing tenure, Electoral Roll and births and deaths.

The results are still coming through but so far the Southwark neighbourhood analytical project (SNAP) has provided a comprehensive demographic picture of the borough, which indicates that Southwark's population is higher than that estimated by the Office of National Statistics. This is an important finding not least because one of the factors that might account for the disparity is the way in which migration is estimated.

Southwark is now layering additional data on the basic population analysis to better understand its communities, particularly looking at children and young people.

In the medium term Southwark is building and enterprise data warehouse (EDW) which will be an integrated collection of historical data and associated applications across an entire organisation. This will enable Southwark to get a multiple view of the customer and will support an automated approach to understanding the composition of the community.

The administrative data discussed above provides a tangible evidence base. However, on its own it is not sufficient to satisfy the need to understand communities. Authorities need also to gather and use information on how communities perceive their areas and how relationships between communities are progressing.  Typically this information would be gathered through an annual residents survey. However, in very diverse areas, there is an argument for undertaking ‘cohesion' surveys more locally - say at estate level -to understand how people are feeling about their area in more detail. 

In Southwark, ‘cohesion' surveys are being piloted on two local authority housing estates. The aim is to interview as many residents on the estates as possible in order to develop a baseline and assess change over time. Residents are being asked questions relating to their sense of satisfaction with their community, life opportunities, respect for diversity, their sense of belonging and some demographic details.  A "tension question, ‘How much tension between different people from different ethnic groups would you say there is in this estate?' is included and results will inform locality plans."

Other London boroughs

Several other London Boroughs have major concerns about the official estimates and are carrying out work to develop their own estimates or evidence to present to ONS.  We are aware that these include work in Westminster, Brent and Kensington and Chelsea .